Research & risk disclosure

Our number is an estimate

SignalCast publishes an independent interpretation of available evidence. The first Fed forecast is an editorial estimate, not a model proven by a calibrated historical sample. A 77% estimate can be wrong. It is not an instruction to trade, a guarantee or personalized financial advice.

What the market price means

A displayed Polymarket probability is derived from the provider’s quoted outcome prices. Those prices reflect market activity and can be affected by liquidity, spreads and timing. The market quote and SignalCast estimate are labeled separately, with their observation dates. A numerical difference is not proof of a profitable opportunity.

Whale activity has limits

Large trades can involve hedges, transfers, conversions or activity across related markets. Wallets are not necessarily separate people. Public data does not establish inside information or expertise. We distinguish observed taker-side trades, current balances, matched YES/NO pairs and unreconciled balance changes. NO in one contract is not automatically YES in a different contract.

Quality-weighted consensus, “smart money” ratings, pre-news interpretation and simulations require adequate verified history. Unavailable evidence remains unavailable. We do not infer a wallet’s stated probability from the price it paid.

How forecasts are scored

The original forecast, source snapshot and market comparison remain dated. Later forecasts are separate records. We score only after the exact contract outcome is verified; passing a date is not a result. The five Fed scenarios are one event, not five separate wins. Voids, disputed results, sample size, calibration and performance versus a contemporaneous market baseline must remain distinguishable.

Independence and source quality

We do not accept wagers, execute trades, receive platform referral commissions or sell sponsored forecast conclusions. Primary sources and contrary evidence should be identifiable. Rumors are not confirmed facts, and unusual flow is not proof of insider trading.

Commercial launch

This is a public research preview. Paid-service availability, processor eligibility and final commercial terms are separate from publishing an example. Native apps and advanced capabilities described as planned are not represented as finished releases.