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INDEPENDENT POLYMARKET RESEARCH
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THE WEEK AHEAD · OUR MAIN EVENT
September 15–16The Fed decides. Here’s our call.
Will the Fed raise rates by a quarter point?
POLYMARKET · YES78.5%
At our original snapshot
SIGNALCAST · YES77%
Our September 12 estimate
OUR DIFFERENCE-1.5 points
A modest difference
WHY WE SEE IT THIS WAY
Our view at the forecast snapshot
Energy pressure and the Fed’s emphasis on inflation favor a hike. Easing annual core inflation leaves room to wait.
Price history is loading or unavailable; no illustrative market line is used.Research: Sep 12, 10:11 AM ET. Prices refresh every 5 minutes while open.
Why this event?
A decision that reaches borrowing costs, stocks and the wider economy. Our editorial pick; not a claim that it is the largest market by volume.
The pink figure is our editorial estimate. The blue line shows observed market prices, not a history of our forecasts. A price refresh never rewrites our original call.
THE VALUE OF INDEPENDENT RESEARCH
The reasoning behind a number.
Whale alerts tell you that somebody moved. Our research asks what that movement means alongside the evidence—and what could make our interpretation wrong.
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Will SignalCast place a bet or trade for me?
No. SignalCast publishes general research and probability estimates. It does not accept wagers, hold trading funds, execute trades, or copy wallets.
Does a difference from Polymarket mean a profitable opportunity?
No. Our probabilities can be wrong. A small difference may reflect judgment or uncertainty, and a correct outcome does not establish profitability. Fees, timing and execution matter.
Are the whale intelligence scores ready?
Observed balances and trade comparisons are available in the preview. Quality-weighted scores, verified intentional reversals and historical simulators require more reconciled history. We will not replace missing evidence with a convincing-looking score.
What refreshes, and what stays fixed?
The featured price and chart refresh every five minutes while the page is open. Position snapshots are collected at most every fifteen minutes on request. Editorial research has its own review date. The original forecast remains unchanged for later scoring.
Will there be a mobile app?
The web edition works on phones. Native iOS and Android apps are in development; neither is available as a finished store release yet.