{
  "id": "SC-FED-20260912-001",
  "edition": 1,
  "recordedAt": "2026-09-12T14:11:25.589548+00:00",
  "evidenceAsOf": "2026-09-12T14:08:14.638423+00:00",
  "method": "Editorial assessment v1; not a calibrated automatic model",
  "statusAtIssue": "pending",
  "event": {
    "provider": "Polymarket",
    "id": "481717",
    "slug": "fed-decision-in-september-762",
    "title": "Fed Decision in September?",
    "meetingDates": [
      "2026-09-15",
      "2026-09-16"
    ],
    "resolutionRules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
    "deadlineNote": "The provider lists September 16 at 00:00 UTC. That is a listing field, not the FOMC announcement time. Score only after verified resolution under the preserved contract rules."
  },
  "primaryCallMarketId": "2252245",
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "marketId": "2252242",
      "conditionId": "0x5e464d85eb49f22d876f3ed6168a7db5e2288e9ae1eb91effd2758e994676f86",
      "label": "50+ bps decrease",
      "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "probabilityPct": 0.2,
      "macroProbabilityPct": 0.2,
      "whaleAdjustmentPp": 0.0,
      "marketProbabilityPct": 0.05,
      "providerListedDeadline": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "marketId": "2252243",
      "conditionId": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830",
      "label": "25 bps decrease",
      "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "probabilityPct": 0.8,
      "macroProbabilityPct": 0.8,
      "whaleAdjustmentPp": 0.0,
      "marketProbabilityPct": 0.35000000000000003,
      "providerListedDeadline": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "marketId": "2252244",
      "conditionId": "0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a",
      "label": "No change",
      "question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "probabilityPct": 21,
      "macroProbabilityPct": 23,
      "whaleAdjustmentPp": -2,
      "marketProbabilityPct": 20.5,
      "providerListedDeadline": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "marketId": "2252245",
      "conditionId": "0x876506d8b2bd7a0d3fa4fe18c024eee6e1dd81ee24c26795dadd6cfe4a7b5d0d",
      "label": "25 bps increase",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "probabilityPct": 77,
      "macroProbabilityPct": 75,
      "whaleAdjustmentPp": 2,
      "marketProbabilityPct": 78.5,
      "providerListedDeadline": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "marketId": "2252246",
      "conditionId": "0x2e4b58fc18dbffd74d5275d89fb076943f21992763c45dcadd81391b83bde13c",
      "label": "50+ bps increase",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "probabilityPct": 1,
      "macroProbabilityPct": 1,
      "whaleAdjustmentPp": 0,
      "marketProbabilityPct": 0.65,
      "providerListedDeadline": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "reasoning": {
    "take": "77% for a quarter-point hike. Inflation and Fed policy signals make it the most likely outcome; large taker trades reinforce that view. Cooling core annual inflation and uneven hiring leave room for a hold.",
    "macroAssessment": "75% for a 25bp hike before the trade overlay. July PCE is 3.7%; Warsh emphasized prices and three July dissenters favored a hike. Annual core CPI eased, July real spending was flat, and 101,000 of August’s 162,000 jobs were in restaurants and local-government education.",
    "tradeAssessment": "Discretionary +2 percentage points for the 25bp hike, funded by -2 points from hold. Hike-directed taker notional dominates and survives removing the largest wallets; hold flow is mixed. Concentration, hedging and overlap with market pricing keep this adjustment small.",
    "uncertainty": "Percentages are explicit analyst judgments, not empirically estimated coefficients. Whale notional share is not the probability of an outcome. Broader model calibration is not yet available."
  },
  "whales": {
    "thresholdUSD": 10000,
    "windowStart": 1789135692,
    "windowEnd": 1789222092,
    "fetchedAt": "2026-09-12T14:08:14.638423+00:00",
    "hikeContract": {
      "marketId": "2252245",
      "title": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "conditionId": "0x876506d8b2bd7a0d3fa4fe18c024eee6e1dd81ee24c26795dadd6cfe4a7b5d0d",
      "marketPrices": [
        "0.785",
        "0.215"
      ],
      "marketOutcomes": [
        "Yes",
        "No"
      ],
      "marketUpdatedAt": "2026-09-12T14:04:45.646266Z",
      "count": 24,
      "wallets": 15,
      "notional": 798754.6683984917,
      "partial": false,
      "pages": 1,
      "buckets": {
        "BUY No": {
          "count": 4,
          "notional": 54744.25000024
        },
        "BUY Yes": {
          "count": 18,
          "notional": 693691.09729755
        },
        "SELL Yes": {
          "count": 2,
          "notional": 50319.32110070162
        }
      },
      "directionalTakerNotional": {
        "supportsYes": 693691.09729755,
        "supportsNo": 105063.57110094163
      },
      "directionalWalletCounts": {
        "supportsYes": 10,
        "supportsNo": 6
      },
      "largestWalletShare": 0.3579042205456985,
      "rowsStart": 1789137417,
      "rowsEnd": 1789210629
    },
    "supportSharePct": 86.84657814750621,
    "supportShareExLargestWalletPct": 79.51486012932133,
    "supportShareExTwoLargestWalletsPct": 72.85242029302775,
    "netSupportWallets": 10,
    "netOpposeWallets": 5,
    "method": "Exact conditionId; unique transaction/asset/wallet/side/size/price/time rows; size times price >=10000; local UTC24h filter. BUY Yes + SELL No is hike-directed; SELL Yes + BUY No opposes. These are observed taker trades, not holdings or net capital inflows. A wallet can trade both directions.",
    "limitations": "Unknown off-platform hedges, wallet ownership and trading intent. Cash threshold favors expensive shares. No proven predictive coefficient; avoid double-counting market information."
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "BLS August CPI",
      "releasedAt": "2026-09-11",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm"
    },
    {
      "title": "BEA July PCE",
      "releasedAt": "2026-08-26",
      "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026"
    },
    {
      "title": "BLS August employment",
      "releasedAt": "2026-09-04",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm"
    },
    {
      "title": "Warsh Jackson Hole speech",
      "releasedAt": "2026-08-28",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm"
    },
    {
      "title": "FOMC July statement",
      "releasedAt": "2026-07-29",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm"
    },
    {
      "title": "Beige Book",
      "releasedAt": "2026-09-02",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202608-summary.htm"
    },
    {
      "title": "Gramercy EM Weekly",
      "releasedAt": "2026-09-12",
      "url": "https://www.gramercy.com/2026/09/em-weekly-september-12-2026/"
    }
  ],
  "evidenceDigests": {
    "providerSnapshotSha256": "ea1b372890ae16d84934d565a15ad352320af4a96514088123ba46433e3d5db9",
    "eventSnapshotSha256": "a78bd33fade40d993a2cf6f7187c8cbed3b9c626daa684f4c10f5887a7d44301",
    "researchSourceSha256": "5dc918209a050bed9f2fa1a5501c0bf861906f2c73c444f9e12585e918cb6eda"
  },
  "scoringRules": {
    "unit": "One Fed event counts as one primary call, not five binary wins.",
    "primaryCall": "Correct only if the 25bp hike contract resolves Yes; incorrect if another bracket wins. Void or disputed resolutions are separate.",
    "probabilityScore": "After verified resolution, multiclass Brier score is sum((probabilityPct/100 - outcomeIndicator)^2). Score frozen market baseline after normalizing its five prices to sum1; retain original quoted prices.",
    "updates": "Never overwrite this file. Issue a new ID and retain every original. Store later resolution separately.",
    "recordStatus": "Original is pending; no wins, losses or accuracy claimed."
  }
}